Commentary
Make no mistake, Democratic Party presidential candidate Barack Obama is another in the line of garden variety liberals who have been that party’s candidates over the past half century or so and therefore no more supportable by militant leftists that any of the others. No more and no less. That is the beginning of wisdom for us here. Nevertheless Obama's nomination does represent one significant different from past Democratic candidacies- his race. A not unimportant difference as this misbegotten presidential race heats up and the question of race will, one way or the other, raise its ugly head. Obama’s nomination, in the final analysis, is significant-for him- not so for the vast majority of blacks (and others for that matter). The reasons for that situation I have addressed in other commentaries in this space and will in the future. What I want to discuss today though is this question of whether Obama is electable today in this racially-divided society.
Part of Obama’s drawing card among some whites and others has been a deliberate strategy of arguing for a post-racial candidacy (I know, I know to even mention such a thing seems absurd on its face given the historical and current racial realities.). That appeal had a certain very real cachet among the young, well-educated urban college types, up and coming blacks and other minorities. Frankly, if wishes were reality it would be very appealing. But here is the nut. This election is about votes and, more narrowly, swing votes in a few key states if the past several presidential elections are any indication.
Frankly, as the numbers are starting to firm up things are starting to look grim for Obama’s chances. An in-depth recent poll I looked at told the tale that is the real face of American society, at least its voting segment. Obama, despite some cold water from die hard Hillary supporters, is very solid with the woman vote. He is obviously solid with the urbane young and virtually all blacks, no question there. He is also, and here is the kicker, solid with the very poor and lower white working class (family incomes under $50,000) that Hillary bashed him over the head with in the spring primaries. In short he looks good thus far for holding many of the old Democratic coalition segments together. So where is the problem?
The problem is the white suburban vote that has tended to call itself independent as it has left the cities but has swung Republican over the past several elections. Mainly, from what I can gather, this is now a second generation (at least) out in the suburbs. And that is the rub. One way of dealing with race (or better, racial fears and hatred) is to walk away from it, if you can. This segment has, generally, walked away from the cities with its teeming minorities. Thus the hard symbol of racial segregation is no longer the rope or the separate facilities but the “gated” community (I mean that metaphorically here). This is no the "white trash" of literary mention but those with some college, some money and many frustrations. These, moreover, are the people I live among. That is the deep, dark secret of American racism and ultimately why Obama is in serious trouble. More later as the campaign progresses (if that is the right term for this thing).
I want to follow up on my comment in the above entry about living among those white working class people that Obama has failed to galvanize due to his race. There is the question in a nutshell. It is not pretty. The neighborhood I live in is mainly composed of young white lower-level techies (who could afford the modest homes in this area and not elsewhere), small, very small building trades contractors (masons, landscapers, plumbers and the like) and the lower end of the white collar professions (computer programmers, governmental employees and the like). Although this is Massachusetts and is not a place that Obama needs to worry about this segment is a Northeastern version of what he has to worry about elsewhere. Mainly, solidly white working class areas where the race question is not an in-your-face day to day concern but hovers in the back of the mind of those who live here.
ReplyDeleteI’ll give more examples later, but for now ponder this. Massachusetts has a state version of Obama in the current governor and Obama friend, Deval Patrick. In 2006 Patrick swept to victory against a Mitt Romney- clone. Yet in the voting breakdown for my greater neighborhood, as far as I can tell, his opponent ran even here. In the city itself, a very, very working class city, the numbers were somewhat similar, although he carried the city. Moreover, in the results of the February 2008 Democratic primary here Obama was swamped by Hillary. Now all of this is mere anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but I will bet some money that McCain will do well here. Of course, none of this is about race, right?
More, much more later on this. As things are heating up this is the issue that seems most interesting to me about this otherwise lame campaign. Moreover, assuming as I do and as every militant should, that black liberation is central to any socialist strategy this is a factor we should be watching closely for when our day comes. And the obstacles we face as well.
This maneuver of Republican presidential candidate John McCain in selecting a little-known right wing Republican woman governor from Alaska, Sarah Pallin, is really a stoke of bourgeois political genius. I do not know whether, in the end, it will be the decisive factor in an Obama defeat but hear me out on this scenario. Forget about the white female voter. I do not believe that there are enough “hockey moms’’ to effect the racial balance of the contest.
ReplyDeleteThere are, however, more than enough frustrated white males, and here I am concerned about white working class males, (who have been tracking Republican at least since the Reagan days) who have been shut out by affirmative action programs and other goodies with the rise of blacks, other minorities and women to say this- Hell, my vote is not racially-tinged- the reason I am not voting for Obama is because I have this attractive gun-toting, beer drinking, life-loving working mother to vote for. See, no race issue here. Nicely done, Karl Rove or his prodigy-except that little problem of the social issues that will again not get addressed (Obama has promised to look at them, if that is any consolation) and that wider gap between rich and poor that will continue unabated. And so it goes. More later.
October 4, 2008
ReplyDeleteI have been meaning to address the question of white racial backlash in regard to the Obama campaign as it has unfolded in September. Except for one little problem-that issue has gone way to the back burner as the current financial debacle has unfolded and the blame has been put on the Bush Administration as the main culprits (and to the Democrats the only culprits). That blame has rubbed off on the Republican McCain as the fall guy since Bush is a “lame duck” (is any term more fitting).
Thus, in racially sensitive (How is that for a euphemism? No, let me change this to racial tinderboxes-that is closer to the truth most times) places like suburban Michigan, western Pennsylvania, southern Ohio and other white working and middle class areas economics is to the fore. Down at the core Marx was right- in the final analysis it is the economy- stupid. This allows us to take some advantage as I have pointed out in a recent entry (Fantastic Musings On THe Financial Meltdown- October 1 2008) of the possibility of getting a hearing for our SOLUTIONS to the economic crisis. Unfortunately, the prime beneficiary is to be, for now, Obama. Mark this though, Obama voted for this ill-begotten financial $700 billion bailout as he has on every important issue to the capitalist system. There is no joy here tonight over that prospect.