ON A LEFT-WING MILITANT'S HEDGING OF BETS

COMMENTARY

SHAME-FACED CONFESSION OF A POLITICAL JUNKIE


As part of a series of collective commentaries in a previous blog (see October 2006 archive, dated October 1) this writer was rash enough to project that the Republicans would hold on to both Houses of Congress in the upcoming November elections. And I put my money where my mouth was. I offering 3/2 odds on that proposition, desperately looking for takers. I then assumed it was like finding money on the ground. In the interest of full disclosure please refer to that blog. What I have to say here is that I am, as it were, in the processing of refining my position on that prediction (how do you like them weasel words?). In short, the odds of a Democratic takeover of either House in my book have gone to even-take your pick. However, the same political landscape that made me so rash as to bet on the Republicans is still intact. A Democratic win in November of one or both the Houses would still not represent a sea-change in the nature of capitalist political options such as occurred in let us say 1932 or 1960. So what gives?

The long and short of it is the Republicans are so incompetent and scandal-ridden on such wide-ranging subjects as sex and the matter of “personal” finances that the Democrats just by staying in place and not stealing as much as the Republicans look good by comparison. Add Iraq and it takes no pyschic to predict the results. Prime evidence for this is the fate of Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. He was pistol-whipped by upstart anti-war candidate Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary in August. He thereafter decided to run as an "independent". The latest polls show him with a commanding lead over Lamont. That case has been repeated elsewhere where marginally anti-war Democrats are leading Iraq-scarred Republicans. Let antiwar activists, however, face an extremely hard reality- the Democrats have no more of an idea of an immediate withdrawal from Iraq than the Bush Administration does. Although I do not relish playing the role of Cassandra those who wish for a Democratic victory next month will soon enough see what I have been saying for the past several months comes to pass. Stay tune for the final line on the elections. Meanwhile, I eat my pie humbly.

ADDED NOTES: October 22, 2006. Christ, even the Republicans are distancing themselves from the Bush fiasco in Iraq. First it was Senators Warner and Hagel arguing for more options and tactical flexibility (except, of course the obvious one of immediate withdrawal). Now 'ole Texas gal'- Republican Senator Kay Bailey Richardson has stated that had she known then what she knows today she would have not voted to give the green light for war in Iraq. Hell, these guys ( and gals) had far more access to 'intelligence' about Iraq than the average citizen would ever had. These people WANTED to go to war assuming that it would be a walkover. When they got walked over they started deserting that ship like fleeing rats. I have been saying for months, jokingly, that only the immediate Bush entourage was still committed to this misadventure. Now it looks like this may be almost literally true. Let me repeat the message I have been hammering home all election season-GET THE HELL OUT OF IRAQ NOW!

Apparently, however, not every pro-war activist is ready to call 'uncle'. Despite the fact that even the editors of National Review are starting to buckle and call Iraq a mistake Boston Globe Op-Ed columnist Jeff Jacoby, last heard from preaching moral relativism to the poor Amish (see October 2006 archives, HANDS OFF THE AMISH, dated October 10), had a commentary in the October 22, 2006 edition drawing every possible historical analogy at his command in order to justify "staying the course" in Iraq. He drew on analogies to the American War of 1812, the Battle of the Bulge in World War II and that last refuge of every rascal-the American Civil War to buttress his argument to show one never knows what the outcome will be once one starts down a particular slippery slope. Damn, you know your position is very, very shaky when you have to bring out this kind of historical ammunition for a war that was consciously fudged from the start. Hopefully, some future administration will not be "staying" that course in Iraq when Mr. Jacoby's young son comes of military age.