Breedlove's BellicosityBerlin Alarmed by Aggressive
NATO Stance on Ukraine
March 6, 2015
By SPIEGEL Staff
US President Obama supports Chancellor Merkel's efforts at finding a
diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis. But hawks in Washington seem
determined to torpedo Berlin's approach. And NATO's top commander in Europe
hasn't been helping either.
It was quiet in eastern Ukraine last Wednesday. Indeed, it was another
quiet day in an extended stretch of relative calm. The battles between the
Ukrainian army and the pro-Russian separatists had largely stopped and heavy
weaponry was being withdrawn. The Minsk cease-fire wasn't holding perfectly, but
it was holding.
On that same day, General Philip Breedlove, the top NATO commander in
Europe, stepped before the press in Washington. Putin, the 59-year-old said, had
once again "upped the ante" in eastern Ukraine -- with "well over a thousand
combat vehicles, Russian combat forces, some of their most sophisticated air
defense, battalions of artillery" having been sent to the Donbass. "What is
clear," Breedlove said, "is that right now, it is not getting better. It is
getting worse every day."
German leaders in Berlin were stunned. They didn't understand what
Breedlove was talking about. And it wasn't the first time. Once again, the
German government, supported by intelligence gathered by the
Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany's foreign intelligence agency, did not
share the view of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR).
The pattern has become a familiar one. For months, Breedlove has been
commenting on Russian activities in eastern Ukraine, speaking of troop advances
on the border, the amassing of munitions and alleged columns of Russian tanks.
Over and over again, Breedlove's numbers have been significantly higher than
those in the possession of America's NATO allies in Europe. As such, he is
playing directly into the hands of the hardliners in the US Congress and in
NATO.
The German government is alarmed. Are the Americans trying to thwart
European efforts at mediation led by Chancellor Angela Merkel? Sources in the
Chancellery have referred to Breedlove's comments as "dangerous propaganda."
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier even found it necessary recently to
bring up Breedlove's comments with NATO General Secretary Jens
Stoltenberg.
The 'Super Hawk'
But Breedlove hasn't been the only source of friction. Europeans have also
begun to see others as hindrances in their search for a diplomatic solution to
the Ukraine conflict. First and foremost among them is Victoria Nuland, head of
European affairs at the US State Department. She and others would like to see
Washington deliver arms to Ukraine and are supported by Congressional
Republicans as well as many powerful Democrats.
Indeed, US President Barack Obama seems almost isolated. He has thrown his
support behind Merkel's diplomatic efforts for the time being, but he has also
done little to quiet those who would seek to increase tensions with Russia and
deliver weapons to Ukraine. Sources in Washington say that Breedlove's bellicose
comments are first cleared with the White House and the Pentagon. The general,
they say, has the role of the "super hawk," whose role is that of increasing the
pressure on America's more reserved trans-Atlantic partners.
A mixture of political argumentation and military propaganda is necessary.
But for months now, many in the Chancellery simply shake their heads each time
NATO, under Breedlove's leadership, goes public with striking announcements
about Russian troop or tank movements. To be sure, neither Berlin's Russia
experts nor BND intelligence analysts doubt that Moscow is supporting the
pro-Russian separatists. The BND even has proof of such support.
But it is the tone of Breedlove's announcements that makes Berlin uneasy.
False claims and exaggerated accounts, warned a top German official during a
recent meeting on Ukraine, have put NATO -- and by extension, the entire West --
in danger of losing its credibility.
There are plenty of examples. Just over three weeks ago, during the
cease-fire talks in Minsk, the Ukrainian military warned that the Russians --
even as the diplomatic marathon was ongoing -- had moved 50 tanks and dozens of
rockets across the border into Luhansk. Just one day earlier, US Lieutenant
General Ben Hodges had announced "direct Russian military intervention."
Senior officials in Berlin immediately asked the BND for an assessment, but
the intelligence agency's satellite images showed just a few armored vehicles.
Even those American intelligence officials who supply the BND with daily
situation reports were much more reserved about the incident than Hodges was in
his public statements. One intelligence agent says it "remains a riddle until
today" how the general reached his conclusions.
Much More Cautious
"The German intelligence services generally appraise the threat level much
more cautiously than the Americans do," an international military expert in Kiev
confirmed.
At the beginning of the crisis, General Breedlove announced that the
Russians had assembled 40,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and warned that an
invasion could take place at any moment. The situation, he said, was "incredibly
concerning." But intelligence officials from NATO member states had already
excluded the possibility of a Russian invasion. They believed that neither the
composition nor the equipment of the troops was consistent with an imminent
invasion.
The experts contradicted Breedlove's view in almost every respect. There
weren't 40,000 soldiers on the border, they believed, rather there were much
less than 30,000 and perhaps even fewer than 20,000. Furthermore, most of the
military equipment had not been brought to the border for a possible invasion,
but had already been there prior to the beginning of the conflict. Furthermore,
there was no evidence of logistical preparation for an invasion, such as a field
headquarters.
Breedlove, though, repeatedly made inexact, contradictory or even flat-out
inaccurate statements. On Nov. 18, 2014, he told the German newspaper
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that there were "regular Russian army units in
eastern Ukraine." One day later, he told the website of the German newsmagazine
Stern that they weren't fighting units, but "mostly trainers and
advisors."
He initially said there were "between 250 and 300" of them, and then
"between 300 and 500." For a time, NATO was even saying there were 1,000 of
them.
The fact that NATO has no intelligence agency of its own plays into
Breedlove's hands. The alliance relies on intelligence gathered by agents from
the US, Britain, Germany and other member states. As such, SACEUR has a wide
range of information to choose from.
Influencing Breedlove
On Nov. 12, during a visit to Sofia, Bulgaria, Breedlove reported that "we
have seen columns of Russian equipment -- primarily Russian tanks, Russian
artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops -- entering
into Ukraine." It was, he noted, "the same thing that OSCE is reporting." But
the OSCE had only observed military convoys within eastern Ukraine. OSCE
observers had said nothing about troops marching in from Russia.
Breedlove sees no reason to revise his approach. "I stand by all the public
statements I have made during the Ukraine crisis," he wrote to SPIEGEL in
response to a request for a statement accompanied by a list of his controversial
claims. He wrote that it was to be expected that assessments of NATO's
intelligence center, which receives information from all 33 alliance members in
addition to partner states, doesn't always match assessments made by individual
nations. "It is normal that not everyone agrees with the assessments that I
provide," he wrote.
He says that NATO's strategy is to "release clear, accurate and timely
information regarding ongoing events." He also wrote that: "As an alliance based
on the fundamental values of freedom and democracy, our response to propaganda
cannot be more propaganda. It can only be the truth." (Read Breedlove's full
statement here.)
The German government, meanwhile, is doing what it can to influence
Breedlove. Sources in Berlin say that conversations to this end have taken place
in recent weeks. But there are many at NATO headquarters in Brussels who are
likewise concerned about Breedlove's statements. On Tuesday of last week,
Breedlove's public appearances were an official item on the agenda of the North
Atlantic Council's weekly lunch meeting. Several ambassadors present criticized
Breedlove and expressed their incredulity at some of the commander's
statements.
The government in Berlin is concerned that Breedlove's statements could
harm the West's credibility. The West can't counter Russian propaganda with its
own propaganda, "rather it must use arguments that are worthy of a
constitutional state." Berlin sources also say that it has become conspicuous
that Breedlove's controversial statements are often made just as a step forward
has been made in the difficult negotiations aimed at a political resolution.
Berlin sources say that Germany should be able to depend on its allies to
support its efforts at peace.
Pressure on Obama
German foreign policy experts are united in their view of Breedlove as a
hawk. "I would prefer that Breedlove's comments on political questions be
intelligent and reserved," says Social Democrat parliamentarian Niels Annen, for
example. "Instead, NATO in the past has always announced a new Russian offensive
just as, from our point of view, the time had come for cautious optimism."
Annen, who has long specialized in foreign policy, has also been frequently
dissatisfied with the information provided by NATO headquarters. "We
parliamentarians were often confused by information regarding alleged troop
movements that were inconsistent with the information we had," he says.
The pressure on Obama from the Republicans, but also from his own political
camp, is intense. Should the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine not hold, it will
likely be difficult to continue refusing Kiev's requests for shipments of
so-called "defensive weapons." And that would represent a dramatic escalation of
the crisis. Moscow has already begun issuing threats in anticipation of such
deliveries. "Any weapons deliveries to Kiev will escalate the tensions and would
unhinge European security," Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's national
security council, told the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda on
Wednesday.
Although President Obama has decided for the time being to give European
diplomacy a chance, hawks like Breedlove or Victoria Nuland are doing what they
can to pave the way for weapons deliveries. "We can fight against the Europeans,
fight against them rhetorically," Nuland said during a private meeting of
American officials on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference at the
beginning of February.
In reporting on the meeting later, the German tabloid Bild reported that
Nuland referred to the chancellor's early February trip to Moscow for talks with
Putin as "Merkel's Moscow stuff." No wonder, then, that people in Berlin have
the impression that important power brokers in Washington are working against
the Europeans. Berlin officials have noticed that, following the visit of
American politicians or military leaders in Kiev, Ukrainian officials are much
more bellicose and optimistic about the Ukrainian military's ability to win the
conflict on the battlefield. "We then have to laboriously bring the Ukrainians
back onto the course of negotiations," said one Berlin official.
Nuland Diplomacy
Nuland, who is seen as a possible secretary of state should the Republicans
win back the White House in next year's presidential election, is an important
voice in US policy concerning Ukraine and Russia. She has never sought to hide
her emotional bond to Russia, even saying "I love Russia." Her grandparents
immigrated to the US from Bessarabia, which belonged to the Russian empire at
the time. Nuland speaks Russian fluently.
She is also very direct. She can be very keen and entertaining, but has
been known to take on an undiplomatic tone -- and has not always been wrong to
do so. Mykola Asarov, who was prime minister under toppled Ukrainian President
Viktor Yanukovych, recalls that Nuland basically blackmailed Yanukovych in order
to prevent greater bloodshed in Kiev during the Maidan protests. "No violence
against the protesters or you'll fall," Nuland told him according to Asarov. She
also, he said, threatened tough economic and political sanctions against both
Ukraine and the country's leaders. According to Asarov, Nuland said that, were
violence used against the protesters on Maidan Square, information about the
money he and his cronies had taken out of the country would be made
public.
Nuland has also been open -- at least internally -- about her contempt for
European weakness and is famous for having said "Fuck the EU" during the initial
days of the Ukraine crisis in February of 2014. Her husband, the
neo-conservative Robert Kagan, is, after all, the originator of the idea that
Americans are from Mars and Europeans, unwilling as they are to realize that
true security depends on military power, are from Venus.
When it comes to the goal of delivering weapons to Ukraine, Nuland and
Breedlove work hand-in-hand. On the first day of the Munich Security Conference,
the two gathered the US delegation behind closed doors to discuss their strategy
for breaking Europe's resistance to arming Ukraine.
On the seventh floor of the Bayerischer Hof hotel in the heart of Munich,
it was Nuland who began coaching. "While talking to the Europeans this weekend,
you need to make the case that Russia is putting in more and more offensive
stuff while we want to help the Ukrainians defend against these systems," Nuland
said. "It is defensive in nature although some of it has lethality."
Training Troops?
Breedlove complemented that with the military details, saying that moderate
weapons aid was inevitable -- otherwise neither sanctions nor diplomatic
pressure would have any effect. "If we can increase the cost for Russia on the
battlefield, the other tools will become more effective," he said. "That's what
we should do here."
In Berlin, top politicians have always considered a common position
vis-a-vis Russia as a necessary prerequisite for success in peace efforts. For
the time being, that common front is still holding, but the dispute is a
fundamental one -- and hinges on the question of whether diplomacy can be
successful without the threat of military action. Additionally, the
trans-Atlantic partners also have differing goals. Whereas the aim of the
Franco-German initiative is to stabilize the situation in Ukraine, it is Russia
that concerns hawks within the US administration. They want to drive back
Moscow's influence in the region and destabilize Putin's power. For them, the
dream outcome would be regime change in Moscow.
A massive troop training range is located in Yavoriv in western Ukraine
near the Polish border. During Soviet times, it served as the westernmost
military district in the Soviet Union. Since 1998, though, it has been used for
joint exercises by Ukrainian forces together with the United States and NATO.
Yavoriv is also the site where US soldiers want to train members of the
Ukrainian National Guard for their future battle against the separatists.
According to the Pentagon's plans, American officers would train the Ukrainians
on how to use American artillery-locating radar devices. At least that's what US
Army in Europe commander Lt. Gen. Hodges announced in January.
The training was actually supposed to start at the beginning of March.
Before it began, however, President Obama temporarily put it on hold in order to
give the ceasefire agreement reached in Minsk a chance. Still, the hawks remain
confident that they will soon come a step closer to their goal. On Tuesday,
Hodges said during an appearance in Berlin that he expects the training will
still begin at some point this month.
By Matthias Gebauer, Christiane Hoffmann, Marc Hujer, Gordon Repinski,
Matthias Schepp, Christoph Schult, Holger Stark and Klaus
Wiegrefe
